Sunday, September 15, 2019

Mad Dog

John Bolton's departure from the White House last week (we don't know if he quit or was fired) brought me a measure of relief.  While Bolton's realism was a voice that should be heard, particularly with respect to the nature of the Iranian regime, having him in a position to actually make important decisions was a bit too much.  Bolton is much too quick to employ a military option to every problem.

Mattis was a different story, however.  I felt that his departure was a loss for this administration.  His was a sober voice, bolstered by decades of service on the ground. 

I had an opportunity to hear Jim Mattis speak last week at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs last week.

He did not disappoint.  Two aspects of his talk immediately earned my respect (as if my respect for Mattis needed much bolstering).

First off, he did not talk about Trump much at all.  He spoke of a "duty of quiet" and said there is a long military tradition whereby military officers don't pass political judgments.  No such restraint, however, is owed with respect to past administrations and he was critical of the Bush administration's lack of post-combat planning in Iraq and Obama's inaction when Iran attempted an assassination of a Saudi diplomat on our soil-- a clear act of war.

Second, he took ownership of his mistakes. He took responsibility for Osama bin Laden's escape from Tora Bora.  He had a well conceived plan in place to net him, but did not communicate his vision up the chain, used local troops, and never got the authority to get the 9/11 perpetrator.

His silence regarding Trump (I am skeptical whether Bolton will follow suit) and his willingness to accept responsibility speaks to his integrity.

His criticisms of Trump were oblique.  He was generally supportive of the Iranian nuclear deal although admitted the timelines were too short and that the inspection regime needed to be "tightened up."  But said, "The world never comported itself to my satisfaction" and the regimen was functioning "well enough."   Mattis is always good for a memorable quote and as to Iran, he said, "The Iranians haven't won a battle in 500 years and haven't lost a negotiation in its history."

He also indirectly criticized Trump for his neglect in nurturing our relationships with our allies. "The only thing worse than going to war with allies is going to war without them.  Yes, they are a pain in the neck.  We could have said to them 'We're done with you' after our second intervention in 25 years.  But instead we helped them get back on their feet with the Marshall Plan and pledged the lives of 100,000,000 Americans to defend them."  He reminded us that "Good ideas come from other people too."

With regard to his view of the greatest threats to us, he divided it into internal and external threats.

North Korea remains a problem and is a nuclear power that is a declining nation.  Terrorism is an ambient threat but cannot change our way of life.  China and Russia can.   Our premises-- that if we opened up trade and liberalized commercial relations with China--were not correct.  But he also said there is no Thucydides Trap (as Graham Allison has posited).

Mattis instead focused more on the internal threats and quoted Lincoln that if we were to die it would be by suicide. 

We are loading up our younger generation with an unsustainable debt load.  "You young people should be mad as heck about it."  "No nation can keep its liberty without its financial house in order."

Second, he is very troubled by the contempt Americans are showing for each other.  The lack of civility and friendliness "worries me a lot."  "I don't mind a good name calling election, but when it's over, we come together."

Finally, Mattis spoke about and gave advice to young people.  He said he loves being around young people and it's "the only reason I stayed around in this low paying outfit."

His nuggets of advice:
-Make sure you spend most of your time defining the problem.
-Stop being so hard on each other.
-And above all, stay humble.

90 minutes with Mattis was time well spent.


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