I Told You So

Way back on January 16, I spun out the reasons why I thought Donald Trump could win all the marbles.  It looks like I was at least close to being right and we will see if he in fact does.  I correctly assessed voter displeasure with the Republican Establishment and the Washington Elite.  Despite a field of 17 candidates and the headwinds of a MSM that painted him as an uncouth bigot, Trump secured the Republican nomination without the floor fight or other melee that had been predicted.  Sure, the Establishment took a stab at changing the rules and there was the Ted Cruz nonendorsement, but the convention was, I thought, reasonably successful, especially given dire predictions.

Trump made his case, and re-introduced himself to the American people in his acceptance speech which the Democrats criticized as "dark" and "pessimistic" and designed to scare the American people.  Well, we do have plenty to be anxious about--- a struggling economy, $18 trillion in debt, foreign foes throwing their weight around- ISIS, Iran, China, North Korea and Russia.  On top of it, we have had several instances of police officers gunned down in targeted assassinations.  Most Americans believe we are headed in the wrong direction.  If he is playing to fear, Trump is capturing the mood of the country at the moment.  But allow me to briefly comment on the convention.

What I liked about the convention:

• Trump correctly stated the primary purpose of government --to keep its citizens safe from foreign and domestic enemies that would harm us.  And he correctly stated that if government does not accomplish this aim, nothing else much matters.   On the home front, people need to be able to go about their business without fear.  The attacks by radical Islam on our soil have either been denied (workplace violence) or downplayed by the Obama administration.  Trump understands that our social fabric will break down if police remain under attack and are demonized by the federal government. For America to flourish, domestic and international order needs to be maintained and right now, it is breaking down in both arenas.
  
• Trump's line, "I am your voice" resonated.  American citizens have had too many edicts imposed on them without any voice at all.  Gay marriage was not decided by a vote.  Transgenders bathroom rights were also imposed by the federal government.  The Iranian deal (a treaty, in my view) was not signed off on by the peoples' representatives--in fact, material provisions were hidden from us.  The provisions of TPP have also been nontransparent.   President Obama has tried to avoid Congress in implementing his vision of an immigration policy.  The policy of "pen and phone" and legislating through regulatory bodies has taken "We the People" out of the equation in many significant areas. Obama has treated Congress as if they sprouted up spontaneously and was not duly elected. Whether Trump follows through or not remains to be seen, but the American people have been voiceless.

• Putting America first.  That is the president's job.  He is our advocate on the world stage and shouldn't be acting as Secretary General of the U.N. By definition, he is an American partisan. We have had nearly eight years of someone whose first instincts are to apologize for America and to reduce America's influence.
  
• Trump's kids.  His children stole the show.  Poised, articulate, genuine sounding, they were his best advertisement.  He has done something right to rear these children.  Ivanka's comments about working in his office were particularly poignant and said something about the values he tried to instill in them.  Many entrepreneurs still adhere to an informal policy of primogeniture but her comments dispelled that notion.

What I didn't like about his speech:

• Protectionism. There is no evidence to suggest that trade barriers are good for our overall economy and Smoot-Hawley should give anyone pause.  I understand the need to get a better bargain, but curtailing trade would be terrible for the world economy.  Trump's position on this goes against every bone in my body and I can only hope that he reverses position if he gets elected.
  
• NATO commitments.  His statements regarding the conditionality of defending NATO members is reckless and harmful.  Yes, other NATO members need to be browbeaten from time to time to increase their financial commitment.  It is true that over much of the postwar period, many European countries safely built their generous welfare states under the United States umbrella.  But with Putin lusting after the Baltics, ISIS launching attacks frequently, and now Turkey rapidly turning into a tyrannical Islamic state, NATO needs to be strengthened and LED, not dismantled.
  
• What he didn't say.  Trump didn't talk about the overreach of the regulatory state or tax reform, the deficit, shrinking government or federalism--all major issues that are vital to the vibrancy of our country. 

Trump (or his daughter) for the first time in memory addressed issues of LGBT rights, women's issues, and minority issues.  Republicans heretofore didn't even talk about them.

It is a long time until November. International events will certainly play a role and positions may change, but Trump is out of the gate and has gotten much farther than any of the "experts" predicted while the Republican Establishment is still staring at its shoetops.