Friday, December 27, 2019

Last Year of the Decade


This is a difficult time of year.  I normally feel tremendous pressure in the last few weeks of the year to frantically see how many films, books and musical performances I can catch up on to be able to weigh in on those things.   This year, I freely admit that I was a bit reclusive this year, especially with respect to films so my usual year end summary will have a little different twist to it this year, since my authority as a music and media critic is severely limited.

Winners-
The American Worker.  Despite fears of a global slowdown, unemployment in all categories remains at a half century low.  The impact of the trade wars has not damaged the American worker, and many businesses are having difficulty attracting skilled workers.  Real wages are up and more workers are willing to change jobs.  Labor participation rates are up after an extended period of stagnation.  The strong labor market is being widely experienced.  African American and Hispanic unemployment are also at historic lows.  The state of the U.S. labor market will make Trump very tough to beat.

The American Investor-  The S&P 500 was up over 30% this year, confounding the Doom Crew.  Since Paul Krugman predicted that the markets would never recover from Trump, the market is up approximately 40%.

Tulsi Gabbard.  Gabbard is the only politician outside Trump that is willing to push against the establishment and core of her own party.  She single handedly destroyed the candidacy of Kamala Harris, forcefully took on Hillary Clinton (eliciting dark jokes about her impending suicide), and did not vote for impeachment.  There are plenty of points of disagreement with her, but you have to admire her chutzpah.

Losers-
Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenberg.  His company introduced a line responsible for two tragic airline accidents, and then pushed deadlines for re-introducing the 737 Max, forcing the FAA to publicly chastise the company.  American Airlines flight attendants said they wouldn’t fly in the plane and the whole episode raised issues about the cozy relationship between the airlines and their regulator.

Adam Neumann and SoftBank.  Neumann walked away with a $1.7 billion “golden parachute” after We Work’s initial public offering failed, and the company announced layoffs of thousands.  SoftBank bailed out the company after it came close to missing a payroll and astonishingly announced, “The fund now recognizes that the public markets are looking for businesses with a path to profitability.”  Duh.

These two spectacular flameouts beg the question of whether you would ever fly in a 737 Max or put any of your retirement money with SoftBank.

Nike, the N.B.A. and the Vatican- All three genuflected in front of the Beijing regime.  Pope Francis gave the Chinese government a voice in the selection of bishops in China.  Oh, how we miss JPII.

Notable Deaths-
There were a number of notable deaths in 2019: Doris Day, Ginger Baker (of Cream) Toni Morrison, Harold Bloom, Caroll Spinney (Big Bird), Bart Starr, Valerie Harper and Paul Volcker among them.
But the most notable and surprising death may have been The Phillips Curve.  The Phillips Curve was a widely accepted relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate.  The Phillips Curve would predict a much higher inflation rate, given and unemployment rate of 3.5%.  There are various theories of why inflation is so subdued, especially considering trade restraints that many would have would have added to inflation.  Yet inflation is hovering around 2%.   I think we can have a memorial service for the Phillips Curve.

New Words-
Two of the public intellectuals that I follow coined new words.  Deirdre McCloskey coined “innovism” as a better descriptive term than capitalism.  Daniel Pipes coined the term “civilizationist” to counter the term “nationalist.”  So I decided to follow suit and coin a few of my own:

De-networking- Much has been written about the importance of networking to advance your career.  I have taken a contrary position and have asserted that de-networking, that is dissociating yourself from individuals that are a waste of time and/or a drain on your time and resources can be even more important than networking.

Wantrepreneur- A wantrepreneur is someone that has suffered a career disruption or layoff and is going it alone as a “consultant” or in a loose confederation with others in an “eat-what-you-kill” arrangement, or someone in the gig economy.  In either case, it is someone that hops right back to a corporate job once an appropriate opportunity presents itself. 

Nerdgasm- The exquisite pleasure and heightened sense of stimulation one feels when fully engaged in certain intellectual pursuits.  A Nerdgasm can occur during a book fair, lecture series, new museum exhibitions or opening a brand new book that you’ve been lusting after for some time.

Finally, here are my Best of 2019-

Books
Fiction- Property by Lionel Shriver.  This collection of short stories and a novelette center on property ownership.  Shriver is a brilliant writer as well as a steadfast foil to the woke literary community.

Nonfiction- Lake of the Ozarks by Bill Geist.  Geist’s book is a timepiece, a trip down memory lane as he recounts summer working at a summer camp in the Lake of the Ozarks.  This book is best read in the late summer on the back porch with a glass of wine and the cicadas chirping.

Film- Never Look Away.  This is the best film I have seen in a decade.  A young artist is caught between the soul crushing regimes of the Third Reich and Stalin’s Soviet Union.  Its three hour length nearly scared me off but the film never dragged.  Screenplay, acting, music score were all superb.

Musical Performances- Zepparella.  With great apologies to violin virtuoso, Itzhak Perlman (see documentary Itzhak), this Led Zeppelin tribute band had me transfixed.  This high energy, young, all female band was perhaps the best tribute bad I have ever seen.  Perlman was wonderful but Zepparella was loads of fun.


All in all, 2019 wasn't a bad year.

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