Re-Traded

 

One of the most fundamental concepts in the study of economics is tradeoffs.  As the wise Mick Jagger put it years ago, “You can’t always get what you want.”   Choices almost always involve tradeoffs.

We are experiencing the largest shift in “the deal” since the Dust Bowl.

Where you and your family choose to live involves a series of tradeoffs.   There are three basic choices (and some subchoices)--- large urban metropolitan area, small town, and rural.

The deal has been shifting for some time, but with Woke DA’s being installed in most large metro areas coupled with the arrival of COVID, they changed the deal.

Many of us accepted the tradeoff of living in a large metropolitan area and the deal was this:   You accepted a certain amount of congestion, pollution, a little crime, higher taxes, and yes, a bit of corruption.  In return, you were part of a large labor and employer pool and consequently made more money, had access to better health care, cultural institutions and events, and a wide variety of restaurants.  

But the deal has been changed fairly dramatically over the last two years, and the documented flow of people out of California, New York, New Jersey and Illinois confirms it.  And because it takes planning to move (need to find suitable employment and housing), this flow is likely to turn into a flood.

In cities like Chicago, the crime has gotten so out of control that the cultural institutions and restaurants are pretty much off limits unless you want to take your life into your hands.  One friend of a friend of mine was shot coming home from a Blackhawks game this fall.  A retired teacher was shot and killed on the way home from a White Sox game last summer.  Two Blackhawks players were carjacked in the West Loop recently.  A graduate student was stabbed to death on a Sunday morning near Sears Tower.  A recent University of Chicago graduate was shot and killed in the afternoon in Hyde Park.   There were over 1400 carjackings last year in the city and only 106 arrests.  And when they do get arrested, they are out on cashless bail.  Violent criminals roam the streets on electronic monitoring. 

To give you a flavor of how bad things have gotten, I participated in a Moby Dick read-a-thon at the Newberry Library just north of downtown three years ago, in which I was scheduled to read my chapters at 3 am.   There is no way in the world I would do that today.  Recently, one old friend of mine wanted to get together with me for drinks, but asked if I could join him late in the afternoon.  Because of the danger, he makes it a point to be out of the city by 6 p.m.

The deal has changed in major U.S. cities--- Chicago, Minneapolis, New York, LA, San Francisco.  Rampant crime (along with COVID restrictions) have made it much less likely that people will enjoy the restaurants and culture offered by the cities.   Remote work has made it possible for many professionals to be employed at relatively high wages without experiencing the congestion of a commute. 

Two basic government functions are to protect your person and your belongings and to provide K-12 education.  In these cities, the police are under severe restrictions and the DA’s don’t prosecute.  The union-controlled school systems either miseducate or, in places like Chicago, don’t educate at all.  Escalating taxes are paying for what, exactly?  A school system that won't teach and a police force that is prohibited from protecting you.

A few years ago, a logical move for empty nesters would be to sell the home in the suburbs and get a condo downtown so they could walk to the office, restaurants and cultural events.   That is now off the table.   In the summer of 2020, those people cowered in their building as they hear glass smashing on the first floor during the George Floyd riots.  There is no credible plan in any of these cities to restore a modicum of order.   Moving downtown is now off the table.

The deal got re-traded and isn't likely to be restored anytime soon.  The flow out of these cities to small towns and rural areas is about to become a torrent.

Next, I will write about the re-trade in higher education.