A Touch of Optimism: Viewing the Pandemic from Another Angle

This is real world.  The event that people warned us about has come to pass.  We have had a couple generations of relative peace but that has now ended.  The shots fired during the Cold War were fired on foreign soil.  Our wars since 1945 have been offshore and have been removed from day to day American life, and not materially affecting it, other than those of the families of the casualties.  Suddenly, we are all living like Londoners during the Blitz.  And that’s no hyperbole.  We know people will die.  We are hunkered down and disrupted.  We don’t know the outcome or when it is going to end.

Markets are crashing and stressing; retirement plans obliterated in weeks.  JP Morgan announced the closing of 1,000 branches.  Most of retail is closed.  Toilet paper is scarce. Courts are closed.  Lines at grocery stores are long.  Within a matter of weeks, we are all living like Venezuelans.  COVID-19 is touching every American.

Even though we are early in this maelstrom, I found some things that give me some measure of optimism and good things that will come out of this catastrophe.

·        China has been unmasked.  Contrary to what “experts” like Richard Haass are asserting, COVID-19 and the atrocious handling  of it by the CCP will NOT expand its world leadership.  The coverup of the outbreak was well documented.  What we do not yet know is whether the outbreak was an intentional bioweapon.  The market turmoil is in part a result of the realization that 25 years of developing China as a reliable business partner have come to an end.  I will have much more to say on this in future posts.  But after COVID-19 shrinks in the distance, the world will not look upon China in the same way again.  For all his faults, Trump saw this early, and was very Churchillian in that regard.

·        We have not yet heeded the warnings for catastrophes of this nature.  We will learn from it.  I read Laurie Garrett’s book, The Coming Plague which warned of an event like this almost 25 years ago.  Others have been warning of the dangers of an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack, which would fry the grid and all electronics.  Congress has done nothing about it.  We are learning how to coordinate between the federal and state governments.  We are learning about the soft spots in our systems.  The last official report estimated that 90% of Americans would perish in the months following an EMP attack.  This real world experience will cause us to take these warnings more seriously and engage in real upgrades and disaster planning.

·        Private industry and education are adapting and learning.  Businesses and schools are learning how to function remotely and still get things accomplished.  Restaurants are offering curbside service.  Millions are interconnected to their offices.  Museums and zoos are doing things online. The Met offered free streaming of its operas.  On St. Patrick’s Day, Dropkick Murphys streamed a concert with fans commenting the entire time.  It’s still a little awkward and we miss “real” presence and connections, but we are learning how to function in this world.

·        Yes, there has been some bad behavior.  Fights at Costco.  Kids refusing to stay away from large beach gatherings on spring break. The usual political sniping.  But we have also seen real episodes of the human spirit.  The Italians singing from their balconies.  Young Spanish men playing Battleship by yelling coordinates across the courtyard from where they are sequestered. Yo Yo Ma streaming a comforting performance.  People pitching in to shop for elderly people.  And even some of the political sniping has died down.  Gavin Newsom, Andrew Cuomo and, gasp, Ilhan Omar all complimented Trump on his leadership.  Expect to see more of this as people rise to the occasion.

COVID-19 gave us a forced time out.  I have talked to several people who see this as a blessing in disguise.  We are so stressed, rushing through our commute like so many cattle, eating out, delegating supervision and educating our children to a teacher or day care worker.  Speeding through the avalanche of emails, phone calls, memos that MUST BE DONE NOW, only to get to a weekend to watch an NBA or NHL game.   All of this is gone now.  Parents are forced to spend a lot of time with their children.  Restaurants and fast food joints are closed so we must develop a modicum of cooking and food preparation skills.  With no commute, there is more time for reading, reflection and other things that are more meaningful.  As one friend of mine put it, “We have to learn to live in 1850 again.”  And because of the dreaded uncertainty.  We simply do not know how this will end or weather one of us may become victims so we are forced to live in the moment.  All of our 2020 goals have been smashed to bits, the year not even ¼ way through and we don’t know enough to write new ones.  We are being forced to live in the moment because we simply do not yet know what tomorrow may look like.

We have a long way to go through this crisis.  There will be times of  cold, darkness and despair yet to come  We cannot avoid it. But early on, I see some green shoots that tell us that summer will be here eventually.