The More Things Change.....

Who would have thought that in a single week, we could have peace on the Korean peninsula and a border war with Canada?

But that’s about where we stand right now.

With all the noise from the MSM, it’s difficult to tease apart what has actually occurred, the importance of it, and what the likely outcomes will be.

First, with North Korea.   The world stood amazed as an American president met face-to-face with a leader from the Hermit Kingdom for the first time in 70 years.   It was hard not to feel hopeful after threats of nuclear war were exchanged only a few months ago.  The meeting (that only a few weeks before Trump almost quashed) came with much fanfare, and a worldwide sigh of relief. 

But what did it really accomplish?  The reaction from the media and “experts” is so divided that it is difficult to gain any clarity and I will try to do so.

As for the meeting itself, it was brief—only a few hours longs, so that you know that there was very little actual negotiation going on.   As I read the body language, Kelly looked very taut and nervous, Trump formal and businesslike, and Pompeo smiled through the whole thing.   Overall, the atmosphere looked forced.   While Kim Jung Un’s opening statement was appropriate and carefully worded, the meeting itself produced only a single bullet point vaguely worded statement of intentions that omitted the words  “irreversible” and “verifiable” before the word “denuclearization.”

Immediately afterwards, Trump announced that he could trust Kim Jung Un, that he would cease military exercises on the Korean peninsula, and that the nuclear threat from North Korea had ended. 

Color me very skeptical.   While I applaud Trump’s efforts at a new approach to North Korea after 70 years of failure, the summit has given me nothing of substance to tell me that the only concrete outcome of the summit was to implicitly recognize North Korea as a nuclear power.   Yes, for now, the immediate threat of war has receded, but nothing that has been publicly disclosed has given me any indication that we are any closer to denuclearizing North Korea.  

A couple of weeks ago, I attended a debate at the University of Chicago between a supporter of Trump’s foreign policy and an opponent.   Both made excellent points on a number of issues.  Yet the most irrefutable point is the near impossibility of verification.  We simply do not know where all the North Korean sites, how many warheads they possess, and it is unlikely that the Hermit Kingdom would permit inspections that were intrusive enough to find out. 

Certainly, it is possible—even likely—that there is much going on behind the scenes about which we are unaware.    And it’s a good thing that tensions seem to have relaxed some.  North Korea returned some hostages, destroyed one nuclear site, has ceased missile testing and has made progress toward returning the remains of U.S. soldiers from the Korean War.  But these are token gestures.  In return, we legitimized the regime (and Trump has even lavished praise on Kim Jung Un).   The cessation of military exercises is a huge concession, both to North Korea and China, which has long chafed under U.S. military presence.

The Left has cheered every time Trump appears to have taken a wrong turn.  When it looked like Trump was going to cancel the summit, a chorus of “I told you so’s” went up.   Trump supporters were ready to award Trump the Nobel Peace Prize for agreeing to the summit.   In my view, both positions are premature.   It will take awhile to determine where this is all headed.  But in terms of what concrete objectives each side achieved, it is pretty clear that Kim Jung Un won this round handily and bigly--- assuming there is nothing material that is nonpublic that we have achieved. 

I was harshly critical of the Obama administration for its negotiation of JPCOA.    Likewise, I slammed John Kerry and his absurd speech in Cuba, “This is what change looks like.”    I fumed at the rough treatment of our only reliable ally in the Middle East—Israel—by the Obama administration. 

The Obama foreign policy often seemed to embrace dictators and alienate our friends.  He gave concessions up front and did not hold adversaries accountable.

But after a week in which Trump insulted Trudeau, lavished praise on Kim Jung Un, got nothing concrete in return and pushed for Russia to be allowed to return to the G7,  it’s possible that Trump and Obama are more alike than it would at first appear.