Trump Gets Schooled

The conventional wisdom today, especially among Trump supporters is that Trump's tough stance on North Korea got him to stand down.  Kim Jung Un announced that we was not going to fire at Guam after all, after he received plans from his generals to turn the U.S. base into a "ring of fire."  Pundits had been comparing the crisis with North Korea to the Cuban Missile Crisis after it was revealed that North Korea had apparently mastered the technology to miniaturize a nuclear warhead and fit it onto a missile. The crisis persuaded China to cut off North Korean imports of coal, iron and lead.  General Mattis warned as late as yesterday that it would be "game on" if the North Koreans fired at or near Guam. 

The world breathed a sigh of relief when Kim Jung Un announced that it would not do so but reserved the right to change his mind if the U.S. continued in its "reckless behavior."  Memadbers of the administration are high fiving each other, convinced that as in the Cuban Missile Crisis, we went eyeball to eyeball with the Norks and the Norks blinked.

That's not how I see it.   Round 1 goes to North Korea.  Kim Jung Un got all of what he wanted. Trump came away empty handed.   Kim Jung Un played a weak hand masterfully, just as Putin did with Obama.  The man that brags about his negotiating skills got outblustered.

As I predicted, a bad actor would probe the new president to find out where the lines were.  By creating this crisis, Kim Jung Un revealed where all the lines existed.  Last week China announced that the little dictator would be on his own if he fired first at the U.S. but that they would come to his aid if the U.S. launched a preventive war.   Trump responded correctly by bluntly announcing that North Korea would face "fire and fury" if it attacked first.  This blunt language permitted the left wing media to jump to the side of the North Koreans, with the number 2 Democrat publicly stating that Kim Jung Un "is acting more responsible" than Trump.  Others in the MSM voiced similar sentiments.

The only way that the North Korean problem will be solved is through crisis which ends in a negotiation.  Yes, the Chinese implemented some sanctions, but the North Koreans have shown that they can withstand sanctions and over time, those will either be evaded or relaxed. Now that the crisis has abated and he has successfully recruited the American Left as an ally, there is no immediate pressure to pressure the Chinese into leaning into him harder.  The consequence is that Kim Jung Un will, over time, find Chinese sanctions relaxed, the Americans relying on deterrence, and he has learned where everyone's "reserve price" is.  

Well played.  He will keep his program.  And soon the Iranians will have their nuclear missiles too.