You'll Never Hear About It

I have a bold prediction.

The Republicans lost in '08 to Barack Obama, in part because of the war in Iraq.  We all know the controversy and arguments around the decision to oust Saddam Hussein, and the failure to adequately plan for a post-Hussein Iraq undoubtedly cost American lives.

Ultimately, however, I believe that Barack Obama's domestic policies will ultimately lead to more premature American deaths than George Bush's decision to invade Iraq.

These deaths will arise out of at least two areas.  First, there will be deaths that arise out of  Obamacare.  I have been reading more about the U.K.'s experience with nationalized healthcare.  While  we have not gone that route yet (the true liberals would like to take us there), we have taken the first step, and President Obama's former head of Medicare, Donald Berwick, famously announced that the U.S. health system was "trapped in the darkness of private enterprise."  This gives you a hint of where they ultimately would like to take us.  Great Britain's death rate after major surgeries is four times what it is here.  And a recent study showed that care was so poor at hospitals administered out of the mid Staffordshire trust that hundreds have died.  The "death pathways" (yes, Sarah Palin was right to be concerned) misdiagnose people regularly leading to even more deaths.

It is true that we aren't on the UK system yet, but the law of supply and demand dictates that putting more people in the system without increasing the number of doctors and facilities will increase treatment delay, and some number of delays will have fatal consequences.  Doctors here at Mt. Sinai (which serves mostly Medicare and Medicaid patients) are deeply concerned over whether that hospital will be able to remain open after Obamacare reimbursement levels are cut.  Some of those people will defer treatment.

So much for compassion.

The other  policy decision that  will lead to more American deaths is in CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards.  CAFE standards are known to cause at least 2,000 deaths and 20,000 injuries per year, and that number has been confirmed by several independent sources, including the National Academy of Sciences and the NHTSA.  This is simple physics.  To meet the mileage requirements, cars must be made out of lighter materials.  These materials do not stand up as well in high speed collisions.  President Obama recently mandated that these standards be gradually raised to 54.5 MPG by 2025.  Hundreds more highway deaths will result, even though CAFE standards have not shown to be effective in lowering fuel consumption.

You will never hear about it.  You will never read about it.  It will be dark, insidious and silent.  But I predict that the cumulative effect of Obama's domestic policies on mortality in just these two areas over time will eclipse American deaths resulting from the invasion of Iraq.

Bet on it.