Catastrophe

I have slept little the last couple of nights - Monday night because of the anxiety over Tuesday's election, and tonight because of the reality of what has happened.  Charles Krauthammer tried to put a good spin on it and said this election was "unusual," that Romney was an "East Coast liberal" from a weak field of candidates and that "the future of the Republican party is bright."  I see this very differently.  Last night could very well have changed America permanently.

Think about the enormity of what has happened.  Obama was re-elected despite a moribund economy, persistently high unemployment, a chronic housing mess, youth unemployment at unthinkable levels.  Business formation is at historical lows.  And in the face of this, Obama promised more debt, choking regulation and higher taxes.  Overseas, our traditional alliances are in tatters, Iran moves ever closer to a nuclear weapon, Russia and China undermine us at every turn.  Horrifyingly, our embassy in Libya is overrun by terrorists and we do nothing.  Obama coldly explains it away as "not optimal."

And we rehired him.

I went to bed last night thinking about the last time I visited the neighborhood.  When I grew up, it was a fine, low crime, working class neighborhood of hard working Eastern European immigrants trying to scratch out a living so their children could have it a little better.  Today, it is crime and gang infested with burned out buildings and seedy stores.  Some things look vaguely familiar but the reality is that neighborhood I grew up in is gone.

So it will be after eight years of Barack Obama.   We may no be able to recognize the America we loved, the America of freedom and unbounded opportunity.

What will the next administration bring?  One only has to look at the last four.  Obama is no Clinton.  He is not an accommodationist.  He is a true believer in a slightly toned down Marxist model.   Capitalism exploits workers.  If capitalists gain, workers lose.  And he applies that thinking globally.   America uses a disproportionate share of natural resources and exploits third world countries.  He is no believer in individual sovereignty.  In fact, I have challenged my liberal friends to show me that he has ever used the phrase "individual liberty" in any speech.   Crickets.

What will the next four years look like?  More Big Government. More spending.  More debt. More regulation.  The EPA is already preparing for its assault on any industry related to fossile fuels.   The DOL is already implementing union card check.  Taxes will go up.  Unconstrained, Obama would love to be at French levels, and without a distinction between ordinary income and capital gains-- for he has no concept of risk.  For Obama, earnings from capital are of a lower order than earnings from the sweat of your brow anyway.  We can expect a much smaller military--America's ability to project power will be a shell of its former self.  Obama will deliver on his promise to Russia and to liberals here-- more flexibility (translated- unilateral disarmament, especially of our nuclear forces).

Opportunity will shrink.  Faced with increased taxes, regulation, and less flexibility with their workforce, more business owners will simply opt out.  I spoke with one managing director of a private equity firm last week who told me privately that if Obama is re-elected, he will opt out.  He's made enough money.  It will simply not be worth it.  Atlas will begin shrugging.

As disturbing as Romney's loss was, I was even more discouraged by the loss of Robert Dold to Brad Schneider.  I was a supporter of Dold's, had gotten to know him over the past couple of years, and my daughter interned for him.  Dold was a sensible, moderate Republican, a business owner and good listener.  Schneider was basically an unemployed liberal drone (supposedly he had his own "consulting" firm that showed no income.  The 10th district was gerrymandered last go around and Dold lost by less than 3,000 votes.  Dold was EXACTLY the kind of sensible guy we needed in Congress and represented our district well.

How did this all happen?  I fear that we have reached the tipping point.  We have become Europeanized.  I truly fear that instead of the independent can-do people, we have become a passive "I want mine now" society.  Damn the next generation and damn the "rich."  I want mine now.  And as more and more Americans get accustomed to that government check, and there are fewer and fewer that actually create wealth, society begins to grind down.  That is precisely why Obama never even talks about a serious attempt to constrain entitlements, and why there was such a kerfuffle over Romney's 47% remark.  People will never vote to cut their own benefits.  And when the 47% inches toward 50%,  the insurer of those entitlements gets a permanent majority.

What will the next 4 years bring?  Much more government.  Much less freedom.  Almost imperceptible growth.  Business will tough and nasty.  We will have a smaller, less vibrant America.

Maybe permanently.