Monday, October 25, 2010

Eating Your Own Children


Juan Williams was fired by NPR (letters stand for No Personal Responsibility) last week for admitting that he felt "nervous" when he boarded airplanes with Muslims in traditional Muslim garb. NPR summarily fired him for that "bigoted" comment.
Mr. Williams is one of my favorite liberal commentators. While I often disagree with him, he takes a reasonable approach to the discussion and has a good sense of humor. He's someone I'd love to have dinner with and have an engaging discussion with. I am outraged by NPR's abrupt termination of him.
First, Mr. Williams was merely vocalizing an emotion, a visceral reaction, not something entirely under one's control. He in no way indicated that his raw emotion would precipitate any change in behavior, and indeed expressed regret that he sometimes harbored this feeling. Truly mature and adult people often have emotions that are not acted upon; in fact, most of us adults spend a great deal of energy in work and at home mastering our basest instincts. It's called being human.
Second, this emotion is not without some rational basis in fact. It is the sympathetic nervous system reacting to a perceived elevated risk or threat. Now, one can argue that this is an overreaction to the probability of harm. The probability of dying or being harmed in a terrorist attack in your lifetime is very small--less than your chances of dying from a lightning strike. But we do know some inconvenient facts. While not all Muslims are terrorists, virtually all terrorist attacks on Westerners over the past quarter century have been Muslim. We also know that airplanes are a weapon of choice for Muslim terrorists. Third, we know (despite Eric Holder's feigned ignorance), that some proportion of Muslims are motivated to engage in such acts by a radical and fundamentalist interpretation of the Qu'ran. Given those facts, it is not bigoted for someone to have a visceral reaction to someone in Muslim garb at the airport. But it is important to note that Mr. Williams DID NOT say that he would refuse to fly on the same plane as someone in Muslim garb nor did he say that because of this nervous feeling, we should subject such individuals to heightened scrutiny (although many commentators believe that this might be warranted). All he did was communicate an emotion. And he was fired for it.
Did he and do we engage in religious bigotry? I think nothing could be farther from the truth. Do you realize that we tolerate a fundamentalist religious sect that demands of its followers that they live as they did a century and a half ago? They dress in strict garb. They observe strict mores and customs and rarely marry outside their own group. They are very devoted to their faith, and they reject modern technology and society. That sect would be the Amish. Yet, if an Amish man showed up at the airport (assuming his religion permitted flight), neither Mr. Williams or even the biggest bigot south of Archie Bunker would be nervous. Why is that? Despite their rigid religious beliefs and their desire to live and dress in ways that are not mainstream, no members of this sect seek to impose themselves on others or seek to impose their religion on others through violent means. As a consequence, despite being out of the mainstream, the Amish are left alone to live their lives quietly and peacefully. Unfortunately some proportion of Muslims has chosen a different path.
The left denies the association. They deny the existence of political Islam. We have an attorney general that cannot even utter the phrase "radical Islam." We have people that walk out of discussions as guests on "The View" did when Bill O'Reilly asserted the fact that Muslims attacked us on 9/11. The unfortunate fact is that there wasn't a Catholic, Hindu, Jew, or Buddhist among the 19 hijackers. The Fort Hood shooter was a Muslim. The Times Square Bomber was a Muslim. The "underpants bomber" was a Muslim. Did Williams comment really reflect irrational bigotry. No. The worst that can be said of him is that he miscalibrated the relative increase in the probability of a threat. But to deny the increase in the threat is to deny reality.
Further, let's take another hypothetical. Let's assume that Juan Williams said, "I'm a devout Catholic and my twelve year old son was asked to go on a religious retreat with about 20 other young boys and 5 or 6 young priests in the White Mountains for a week, and I am feeling uneasy about that." Would NPR similarly have fired him for his bigoted comment? After all, only a small percentage of priests have been found to engage in unseemly conduct. Not a chance. They would have all been nodding their heads in sympathy. There would be no outrage over religious bigotry there. You can bet on it.
NPR should be ashamed of itself for silencing a reasonable, rational and articulate commentator. The threat of radical Islam is real and presents very difficult problems for an open, democratic and tolerant society. It is absolutely essential that we fully and fairly and openly address all aspects of the issues that radical Islam presents, not pretend that it doesn't exist. The P.C. crowd at NPR swung an authoritarian club at free and open discourse.
One could imagine the NPR bunch around about 140 years ago. Imagine a pioneer family seeing a group of 20 or so Native American braves on horseback on the horizon, thundering toward their ranch. Under NPR standards, the pioneers would have been harshly taken to task for their bigotry when they unlocked the gun cabinet.
I doubt I'll be real receptive at pledge time this year.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Peter


I heard Peter Orszag, President Obama's ex-budget director speak at the Association for Corporate Growth's Capital Connection (ACG) in Chicago last week. The ACG is a trade organization largely catering to private equity firms and companies that seek to grow through acquisition--- that is, wealth creators and job generators.

He presented a rather grim view of the budget, stating his belief that there is actually little room on the spending side for real reductions. The military consists of 2/3 personnel and 1/3 systems and hardware costs, and since defense experts do not believe it is advisable to shrink our forces at this time and because systems have long lead times, little can be taken out of the military. Entitlement program changes, he believes, may be phased in over time, but little can be done about current retirees. He does believe that tax increases are necessary but advocates leaving the Bush tax cuts in place for two years and then allow them to automatically expire. Orszag failed to differentiate between extending the tax cuts for "the rich" from the middle class, and ducked the question about raising taxes when the economy is so weak (so the liberal argument goes, "well, we raised taxes under Clinton and got a boom."). Yes, but they did so at the front end of a once in a lifetime tech boom, not while the economy was straining to crawl out of a once in a lifetime financial catastrophe.

In addressing health care, he asserted that "the bill addresses costs more than is popularly believed," but expressed disappointment that the bill did not address tort reform (although he claimed that research shows that malpractice claims to not significantly affect costs).

While optimistic about the long term vibrancy of the U.S. economy, he said that 2012 would be "bumpy" and was bearish about prospects for the U.S. budget, given the partisanship that will undoubtedly be present in Washington after the elections.

Overall, Mr. Orszag left me a little flat. He was better after he got the obligatory bland jokes out of the way at the beginning. He attempted to steer a neutral political course in his remarks, but as a result, left unanswered the important questions about the overall efficacy of the stimulus, the effect on growth, employment, productivity, and innovaation that all these tax increases and regulatory burdens being foisted on business will have, and said nothing about financial reform.

Afterwards, I asked one professional what he thought the punchline of Orszag's remarks was, and he replied dryly, "I can't get rich. I can't retire. And I sure as hell can't get sick."